Hope all goes well… Zipped out to San Diego for the U.S. Marine’s annual Miramar Air Show. America’s finest aviators, technology, coordination. The Blue Angels are incredible. The F35 is unreal. Dusted off an anecdote from the Autumn of 2024 about the importance of patience, for every thing there is a season. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. All the very best, E
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Anecdote (Autumn 2024): Day by day the reds deepened ever so slightly, imperceptibly, the yellows grew crisper, the oaks, twice my age, held on for dear life. Then all at once, the forest came alive, electric, autumn had arrived. Peak. There are months when nothing seems to move. And every so often, a day that forever changes the world. But such things operate according to some mysterious schedule that cannot be rushed. Those things that really matter rarely can be. I was out for a long walk. Through the trees was Long Island Sound, a billion diamonds sparkling on its surface. The great glaciers of the last Ice Age, two miles thick, scraped Connecticut clean and piled the sand and rock due south, across the water. Long Island, stretched out, lazy, its cliffs tumbling into the sea, like everything, eventually. There’s a time for action, a time for patience. A time to run, a time to walk. A time to advance, a time to retreat. And with every passing season such things come into sharper focus. There was a long period in my life where I ran everywhere, always, chasing this trade or that. So many winners and losers, so much energy expended, pain endured, suffering. Experience acquired. There’s probably no other way. And if I could tell my younger self to not rush, to walk more, it would have been unlikely to have changed a single thing. It was a magnificent afternoon, the sun low now, and with fewer leaves on the underbrush, the wild turkeys appeared abundant, elusive bucks no longer concealed, easy game. With each passing year, the importance of focusing on the very few things that really matter, and getting them right, has come to be all that matters. And now feels like a good time for waiting. Watching, listening. Walking.
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Week-in-Review: Mon: Tech-led rally lifts markets, led by Meta on excitement over Muse AI agent, crypto also sees rally. CNN, MS Now, Politico sue over Trump’s White House press ban. S&P +1.5%. Tue: Meta’s Muse drags down stocks that depend on “consumer inertia”. In his General Assembly speech, Trump threatened to annihilate Iran unless it makes a deal, predicted Cuba’s government would collapse, and rejected the idea that nations should limit AI. Goldman in talks to buy $37B credit firm Palmer Square. S&P flat. Wed: Trump hails Iran talks even as Tehran sets “firm positions” for the reopening of Hormuz. US diesel futures slump on export ban fears even as oil rises; White House official says report that US is considering diesel export ban is “fake news.” US to buy back up to $6B in longer-dated treasuries under its expanded buyback program. 5-year treasury yield rises to 5% for first time since 2007. S&P -0.8%. Thu: US init jobless claims 197k (200k e). US federal judge orders Trump to lift press ban. US, Iran said to be exploring phased deal to open Hormuz. Global bonds near average 4% yield as inflation concerns mount. US and China extended a trade truce for another two months, as Xi intensified pressure on Trump to limit support in Taipei at Trump-Xi summit. S&P flat. Fri: US UMich sent 48.1 (47.5e), durable goods orders 0.0% (-0.3%e). White House mulls range of options to lower diesel costs. Iran proposes deal to reopen Hormuz in 7 days if US meets its conditions; Trump rejects proposal, expects renewed bombing after Midterms. US Supreme Court lets Trump expand voter-verification database ahead of midterms. S&P +0.5%.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.2% and VIX +0.06 at +14.87. Nikkei +2.1%, Shanghai -0.6%, Euro Stoxx +0.5%, Bovespa -0.9%, MSCI World +0.3%, MSCI Emerging +1.2%, Bitcoin +3.5%, and Ethereum +2.3%. USD rose +2.6% vs Mexico, +1.4% vs Australia, +1.1% vs Sterling, +1.1% vs Canada, +0.9% vs Sweden, +0.9% vs Indonesia, +0.8% vs Euro, +0.8% vs Brazil, +0.4% vs South Africa, +0.3% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs Yen, +0.2% vs China, and +0.2% vs Chile. USD fell -0.1% vs Russia, and -0.1% vs India. Gold -2.3%, Silver -3.5%, Oil (WTI) -3.8%, Oil (Brent) +0.6%, NatGas (US) +9.8%, NatGas (EU) -9.4%, Power (EU) -7.5%, Copper +1.1%, Iron Ore -0.7%, Corn +0.1%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 2.25%, US +2bps at 2.34%, JP +8bps at 2.22%, and UK +1bp at 3.48%). 2yr Notes +11bps at 4.85% and 10yr Notes +17bps at 5.16%.
YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +76.8% priced in US dollars (+68% priced in won), Taiwan +63.6% priced in US dollars (+65.8% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +43.2% in US dollars (+25% in pesos), Hungary +39.5% in dollars (+36.2% in forint), Norway +32.6% (+24.9%), Japan +31.1% (+31.8%), Austria +26.3% (+30.4%), Poland +25.5% (+34.1%), Singapore +23.8% (+22.9%), Greece +22% (+25.7%), Brazil +20.1% (+13.9%), Thailand +20.1% (+27.6%), Portugal +18.9% (+22.5%), Israel +17.3% (+11.9%), NASDAQ +16.5%, Russell 2000 +14.3%, Netherlands +13.5% (+16.9%), S&P 500 +13.1%, Italy +11.8% (+15.4%), MSCI World +11.3% priced in US dollars, Spain +10.5% (+13.8%), Canada +9.5% (+12.9%), Belgium +9% (+12.3%), Finland +8.9% (+12.4%), Ireland +6.6% (+9.8%), Sweden +6% (+14.3%), UK +6% (+7.7%), Euro Stoxx 50 +5.6% (+8.8%), Australia +4.8% (-0.6%), Mexico +2.8% (+1.1%), UAE +2.1% (+2.1%), China +2% (-2%), Vietnam +1.3% (+0%), Saudi Arabia +0.9% (+1%), Germany +0.5% (+3.7%), Turkey +0.5% (+14.5%), Chile +0.5% (+7.3%), Switzerland +0.4% (+5.1%), New Zealand +0.3% (+1.9%), Malaysia -0.9% (-0.5%), Czech Republic -2.4% (+1.3%), South Africa -3% (-4.5%), France -3.8% (-0.9%), HK -5.1% (-4.4%), Denmark -8.4% (-5.4%), Philippines -9.2% (-3.7%), Argentina -9.5% (-5.2%), India -16.9% (-11.4%), Indonesia -32.8% (-27.8%).
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.