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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
The Long Term Success of the American Experiment

Markets Are Getting Gappy

Markets Are Getting Gappy
October 31, 2026
Read more

Prudence, Justice, Temperance, Fortitude, Courage, Industry, Concordia, Patriotism.

Prudence, Justice, Temperance, Fortitude, Courage, Industry, Concordia, Patriotism.
October 24, 2026
Read more

wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

The Long Term Success of the American Experiment

November 07, 2026

“We’re seeing odd things happening everywhere,” grunted Bulldog. “Riots in France spreading around Europe. Poland. Generational crap. Europe is gone.” I knew the Democrat’s landslide was going to leave Dawg agitated, itchy. “But this ain’t the end of our bull market. I’m looking for a parabolic rally, or something that takes stocks sharply higher then a plateau, a rounded top,” he growled. “In the meantime, I keep buying long-term treasuries. Stacking them in my safe next to the gold and guns,” growled Dawg, gnawing something on his hind with unusual enthusiasm. “Warsh can talk all he wants, but The Fed has one playbook for a financial crisis. Crash interest rates to zero and buy as many bonds as they can.”

Overall: “I JUST WASN’T ON THE BALLOT. IF I WERE, WE WOULD HAVE WON IN A LANDSLIDE! President DONALD J. TRUMP,” wrote America’s Commander in Chief on Truth Social, his publicly traded entities all crashing to record lows. Trump Media & Technology Corp (DJT) settled the week -29%, off 95% from its record high (26 Mar 2024, its first day of trading). World Liberty Financial (WLFI) tokens fell 8% on the week, -86% from the record high (1 Sep 2025). And TRUMP coin settled the week -21%, off 98% from its record high (19 Jan 2025). The loss of paper wealth has been staggering. Every investor except for insiders pinned to the mat. “The Stock Market crashed today because the Dumocrats had a big Tuesday – So sad to see, you only have yourselves to blame!” wrote the President. And Trump’s right. We all only have ourselves to blame. But of course, few of us ever do. We blame others. Which is why America’s founding fathers, steeped in ancient western philosophy, human psychology, and the history of the rise and fall of mankind’s many empires devised a sublime political system of checks and balances. And then married it to free market capitalism, which for all its flaws, is the most robust system ever devised to allocate capital to its highest uses. No other system has produced the invention, wealth, and power of democratic, free market capitalism. And while it is naturally true that from the very first day of its construction, many have attempted to undermine our system, it has proved sufficiently durable to carry us through our many conflicts, not least of which was our civil war. The system self-corrected in response to the Biden administration’s many failures. And it has self-corrected in response to the Trump administration’s many faults. For all the hysteria about our descent into autocracy, the system held strong. And whether you love or hate the outcome, all that matters for the long-term success of the American experiment is that the power to check and balance remains robust.

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Waves: For 60yrs computers got faster and cheaper on a schedule. Moore’s law: the number of transistors on a chip doubled every 2yrs, at about the same cost. Double the power, free, every two years. “Moore’s law is dead,” said Jensen Huang in Sept 2022. Chips still gain transistors, but mostly by getting bigger and more expensive. Free doubling is over. “Regular computing got 10–20% cheaper a year for the last decade,” said Waves, CIO of a highly concentrated fund. “That’s 1.25x AI efficiency gains a year.” But the market expects it to grow much faster.

Waves II: “Let’s say that for every dollar spent on AI infrastructure, you get one unit of compute,” said Waves. “The industry thinks that through various software and process improvements, it can significantly grow the units of compute per dollar spent each year.” Call that task-effective compute. “Anthropic’s S-1 says 4–5x efficiency gains per year. Apparently, they are telling people as much as 10x per year,” he said. “Many of these improvements can speed up existing infrastructure, so we modeled task-effective compute growth out to 2030.”

Waves III: “Jensen isn’t necessarily incentivized for the market to be that efficient, and even he would say 4x per year is achievable,” said Waves. “Anthropic at 10x is incentivized to be efficient. Everyone is talking their book.” If task-effective compute comes slowly, the world needs more Nvidia chips. If it comes fast, each dollar of compute Anthropic buys is worth more, and Dario is selling a mountain of stock. “AI workloads are exploding. If we’re wrong and it isn’t getting more efficient, the Jensen case could be real.” The bull case for chips is that the efficiencies disappoint.

Waves IV: “We’ll add about 22GW of AI compute this year, at $45bln per gigawatt,” said Waves. “Imagine we spend $1trln this year, $1.5trln in 2027, $1.8trln in ’28, $2.2trln in ’29, and $2.7trln in 2030.” Then imagine each new year’s capacity comes online at 4x the productivity of the year before’s capacity. “By 2030 we’ll have 19,000 units of task-effective compute against 22 this year.” That’s 850x the compute capacity by year-end 2030. “Maybe in a world with 1bln Optimus robots we’ll need that kind of capacity, but I’m not smart enough to see that clearly.”

Waves V: Jensen has talked about $3–4trln of annual AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. “Our Jensen-inspired case has $4.1trln in 2030. Model 4x annual efficiency gains onto that and we’ll have 1,300x the task-effective compute of 2026,” said Waves. “Take the same numbers and multiply by the 10x that Anthropic is supposedly whispering, and you get 44,000x.” Hmmm. “Public markets are professional extrapolators,” said Waves. “Multiples get built on the extrapolation. And multiples can change rally fast.”

Waves VI: “Chipmakers carry heavy fixed costs, so a dip in revenue becomes a plunge in profit,” explained Waves. Intel guided Q4 revenue 6% below Q3, and earnings from $0.52 to $0.25. “Revenue down 6%, earnings -50%,” said Waves. “You don’t need to cut expectations for AI infra spend much for equity multiples to be too high. Being wrong by $100–200bln is a matter of a couple of customers behaving a little differently.” Oracle sold $10bln of stock on 2 Nov at an 11% discount, and $10bln of bonds at 7.00–8.65%. “At some point something slows.”

Waves VII: “The last four weeks took some of these names down 50–70%,” said Waves, the prospect of re-acceleration in data center approvals a distant dream. “That’s a great start. It takes the Jensen case off the table. But our lower growth case isn’t a downside case, and it’s about what’s priced. There are a lot of non-zero probabilities below it. The risks are not just tougher permitting. It could be higher cost of capital. Risks that take annual spend to $1trln a year, which is still a huge number,” he said. “One or two customers blink, the growth rates change, the multiples change.”

Anecdote: “There is nothing in the world more soft and weak than water, and yet for attacking things that are firm and strong there is nothing that can take precedence of it,” thought Xi, walking slowly, alone on a beach, considering the wisdom of Lao Tzu. It was a passage that Xi had considered for many decades. When he was a much younger man, it had given him hope, a feeling of great potential, possibility, for himself and his once great civilization. Water. “Everyone in the world knows that the soft overcomes the hard, and the weak the strong, but no one is able to carry it out in practice,” thought Xi, increasingly haunted by the passage. As he ascended through the communist ranks, and China advanced in breathtaking ways, he had told himself his great nation would succeed in practice where others had failed. Water. And yet, Lao Tzu gnawed at him. On he walked. It had been a great week by nearly any measure. The victory by America’s Democrats in the midterms was something he had hoped for. The scale of the Republican defeat exceeded nearly every forecast. The repudiation of Trump’s party by the American electorate had been far greater than that suffered by Biden and his party four years ago, and in the 2024 election. So now America would regroup, reinvent, to what effect no one could yet tell. The system was working as it had been designed; hardwired at its inception for rebirth. Water. How would his electorate regard him in a free election? How passionately would his unemployed youth take to the streets in the absence of his AI-powered police state? They were questions Xi knew not a single person around him would answer truthfully. He had removed so many competent people to consolidate his power that truth had vanished, like water into sand.

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: US ISM mfg 55.5 (54.6e). Oil sinks 7.6%, its sharpest drop in three months, on hopes of US-Iran deal. US to host second Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi next week. Apple gives mixed outlook in its first report under CEO John Ternus. AI/chip selloff resumes. S&P -0.5%. Tue: US JOLTS job openings 7.52M (7.10M e). Australian RBA hikes 25bps to 4.85%, highest since 2008. Meta to raise $15B in a bond sale as investors grow skeptical of AI spending. Palantir falls as slowing contract growth overshadows a guidance raise. AMD and Super Micro issue strong forecasts after close. US midterm elections take place. S&P +0.4%. Wed: US ADP 86k (65k e), ISM serv 54.5 (54.8e). US Democrats sweep midterms, flipping both House and Senate. Trump accepts the results and acknowledges the Iran War played a role in the loss. Defense stocks drop as Trump’s $1.5T budget faces a tougher road in Congress. Data-center/chip names fall on AI regulation fears (Nvidia -3.2%) even as Dow +3.0%. S&P +1.6%. Thu: US init jobless claims 189k (196k e). BoE hikes bank rate 25bps to 4.00% as exp, its first hike since 2023. China blocks SoftBank’s $5.4B takeover of ABB’s robotics division. Paraguay President Peña resigns after the central bank’s seizure of Ueno Bank and mass protests. The AI trade unravels: Nvidia -9.3%, AMD -17.3%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -12%, Nasdaq -5.5% into correction (>10% off its Oct 6 record). Dow gives back all of Wednesday’s gain (-1,833 pts). VIX +70% to its highest since March. 10-year yield falls to 4.84%. S&P -4.4%, worst day since April 2025. Fri: US unemp rate 4.1% (4.2%e), nonfarm payrolls 165k (65k e), US UMich sent 51.0 (48.0e). Fed Dec hike odds rise as SF Fed’s Daly says policy will likely need to tighten further. Trump names Stephen Miller White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. AI rout hits Asia: Kospi (halted for 20 min) and Nikkei each close ~6% lower. Chips rebound in the US as Nasdaq +1.1%. Oil posts steep weekly decline on Iran de-escalation hopes. S&P +0.3%.

Manufacturing PMI (high-to-low): Sweden 60.5 (previous month 58.5), Switzerland 56.7 (previous month 55.3), Austria 55.9 (previous 54.9), US 55.5 (previous 54.5), Czech Republic 55/53.5, Netherlands 55/55.6, Taiwan 54.9/56.7, India 54.7/55.1, Germany 54.2/53.9, Indonesia 54/52.4, Greece 53.3/54, Japan 53.3/54.1, Hungary 53.1/53.3, UK 52.8/51.9, Vietnam 52.3/51.9, Spain 52.2/51, China 52/52.1, Singapore 51.4/51.7, South Korea 51.3/53.9, Hong Kong 50.2/49.2, Poland 50/49, Russia 49.9/49.8, Canada 49.6/51.5, Mexico 49.5/50.3, France 49.5/50.6, Italy 49.4/50.4, South Africa 49/49, Turkey 47.3/47.9. Services PMI: Spain 57.2/58.3, US 56.1/58.8, India 55.8/55.2, Sweden 55.7/57.3, Ireland 54.3/54.1, UK 52.8/52.1, Germany 52.5/52.9, Italy 52/51.7, Japan 51.7/51.3, China 50.8/51.6, Russia 50.1/51.3, Australia 48.5/51.9, France 46.2/51.2, Brazil 44.5/49.2.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -2.7% and VIX +6.22 at +25.64. Nikkei -9.3%, Shanghai +1.4%, Euro Stoxx +0.2%, Bovespa +0.3%, MSCI World -2.5%, MSCI Emerging -4.1%, Bitcoin -0.9%, and Ethereum +0.01%. USD rose +2.4% vs Australia, +1.9% vs Russia, +1.4% vs Brazil, +1.1% vs Canada, +0.7% vs Sweden, +0.6% vs Yen, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs China, +0.3% vs Sterling, and +0.2% vs Euro. USD fell -1.5% vs Chile, -1.1% vs India, -1.0% vs South Africa, -0.9% vs Mexico, and -0.1% vs Indonesia. Gold +4.5%, Silver +5.4%, Oil (WTI) -12.8%, Oil (Brent) -13.3%, NatGas (US) +3.5%, NatGas (EU) -17.7%, Power (EU) -3.8%, Copper -3.8%, Iron Ore +0.1%, Corn -1.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -16bps at 2.05%, US -10bps at 2.24%, JP -6bps at 1.95%, and UK -14bps at 3.25%). 2yr Notes -8bps at 4.51% and 10yr Notes -7bps at 4.86%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Colombia +40.1% priced in US dollars (+20.2% priced in pesos), Norway +31.2% priced in US dollars (+23.2% in krone), Taiwan +31.1% in US dollars (+37.1% in Taiwan dollars), Hungary +30.1% in US dollars (+29.2% in forint), Korea +27% (+20.1%), Poland +21.3% (+33.1%), Austria +14.5% (+20.8%), Portugal +14.4% (+20.4%), Greece +14.3% (+20.4%), Japan +12.7% (+14.1%), Belgium +12.1% (+18.1%), Netherlands +11.9% (+17.8%), Singapore +11.8% (+11.5%), Russell 2000 +11%, Canada +9.6% (+12.9%), Thailand +9% (+16.4%), S&P 500 +7.8%, Switzerland +7.6% (+11.5%), MSCI World +7.4%, Mexico +7.4% (+11%), UK +6.7% (+7.5%), Ireland +6.5% (+12.2%), Australia +6.5% (+3.5%), Spain +6.3% (+11.9%), NASDAQ +5.8%, Italy +5.6% (+11.4%), Sweden +5.3% (+13.4%), Israel +4.3% (+4.4%), Brazil +4.3% (+4.6%), Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2% (+6.5%), Germany 0% (+5.4%), Finland -0.4% (+5%), New Zealand -0.5% (+3.3%), Vietnam -0.7% (-3.3%), Denmark -2.3% (+3.1%), South Africa -2.9% (-3%), China -3.7% (-8.1%), Malaysia -3.8% (-3.8%), Saudi Arabia -3.9% (-3.8%), France -5.2% (-0.1%), HK -5.2% (-4.5%), UAE -6% (-6%), Chile -7.5% (+0.4%), Czech Republic -7.6% (-2.1%), India -8.4% (-4.2%), Philippines -11.2% (-4.8%), Argentina S&P -12.2% (-6.6%), Turkey -12.7% (+2%), Argentina MSCI -15.6% (-14.4%), Indonesia -46.1% (-41.6%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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