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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
Markets Are Getting Gappy

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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

Markets Are Getting Gappy

October 31, 2026

“We spent ten million dollars to solve Navier-Stokes, maybe a little more,” said Sam Altman on some AI podcast. He was being asked how much money Open Ai has spent solving the world’s great unanswered math riddles. It took 10,000 AI agents running in parallel continuously for 88 hours to solve Navier-Stokes. “Look, we did let it get out of control for one week, intentionally so,” said Sam to justify the hundreds of millions he spent to solve hundreds of problems. No one fully understands how AI works. But when thousands of agents running on systems with ten trillion parameters guess what token is likely to come next, something miraculous appears to manifest. And yet what comes next in markets remains a mystery.

Overall: Markets are getting a little gappy. Election opinion polls had been close. Bolsonaro led Lula in 39 of 45 of them by a statistically insignificant margin, with the average of each pollster’s final survey 51.0% to 49.0%. Last Sunday’s upset was 48.2% to 51.8%. In pre-market trading Monday, Brazilian stocks plunged ~15%, the currency puked ~11%, and the ETF which combines both (EWZ) gapped 25% lower before the exchanges opened. By the close of trading, the Bovespa was -13.9% and the Brazilian Real was -8% versus the US dollar. No one really cares. A drop of that magnitude in Brazilian stocks vaporized roughly $225bln in market cap, which is less than half of what Google lost after this week’s earnings announcement. If Brazilians can’t find someone better than an 81-year-old Socialist, once convicted of corruption and money laundering, to lead them into our artificial super intelligence future, then their country should be marked down. But gaps of this magnitude happen infrequently, because of course, freely traded markets are humanity’s original form of artificial intelligence. They forecast the future far better than the Federal Reserve’s army of 1000 PhDs. Markets allocate resources better than communist central planners. Or petty little dictators. And they concentrate capital in the hands of those with superior judgement. So, it’s worth digging in when markets get it wrong. Large gaps require investors to have seriously misjudged the probability of an event, risk/reward ratios, liquidity available to exit if you’re wrong. And they usually involve some new factor or friction. Last Sunday as Brazilian voters went to the polls, Polymarket and Kalshi both had Bolsonaro at 80% despite how narrow the pre-election polls were. Given how accurate prediction markets have become in the past few election cycles, despite their small size and relative illiquidity, investors have come to see 80% prediction odds as effectively 100%. And they size their bets accordingly. But 80% is wrong one time in five.

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Gaps: Jan 15, 2015. The Swiss removed the 1.20 floor on its Euro exchange rate. The market gapped to 0.85 - a 29% plunge in an exchange rate that barely moved in 3yrs. We were long FX vol. I was in Miami, about to go on stage. Those sorts of days get burned into our souls. Feb 5, 2018. The volatility-selling ETNs had grown to such a size that it had become a near certainty they would implode. That day had finally come, for no real reason other than its inevitability. XIV, a $1.9bln product, fell 96% between the close and the next morning and was terminated.

Gaps II: Argentina’s market plunged 38% on the back of a primary upset. Priced in dollars, stocks fell 48% - in 2019. Putin attacked Ukraine, Russian stocks fell 33% in rubles, 39% in dollars (the ruble lost 30% in 4-days) - Feb 24, 2022. But most often, seismic geopolitical events don’t produce the biggest gaps in major markets. Pearl Harbor sparked a 3.5% decline in the Dow. The S&P 500 fell 4.9% on the Monday it reopened after 9/11. The day Lehman failed, the S&P fell 4.7%. And on the open after Trump’s Liberation Day the S&P gapped just 3% lower.

Gaps III: Oil was trading around $32 and consensus held that prices would rise to $50/barrel if war broke out. There was talk of $80, even $100. Every trader my age remembers watching Desert Storm kick off live on CNN in 1991. Oil prices jumped for like two seconds, rolled over, then hit an air pocket. They ended that day -$11/barrel, a 33% decline, the largest one-day fall at the time. When Trump won in 2016, stock futures tanked in overnight futures trading, found strong buying, and ended the day-session 1% higher. Every gap has a story to tell.

Gaps IV: The Nikkei fell 5.8% on a Fri. The BOJ had hiked twice, and investors worried the Yen carry trade was unwinding. On Mon, Aug 5, 2025, while NY slept, the Nikkei fell another 12.4%, the largest percentage move since 1987. Traders bid up the VIX to 65, before Wall Street opened. It was likely multi-strategy funds, scrambling to hedge their biggest risk: a downside gap. Oct 19, 1987. The S&P 500 ended the previous week down 9%. On Mon, stocks hit an air pocket. More sellers than buyers. By day’s end, S&P cash equities were -20.5%, futures -29%.

Gaps V: Multi-strategy funds continue to grow and are now in the zip code of $500bln AUM. They spread capital across a growing number of pods. Relying on trading talent, diversification, and tight stop losses to extract a consistent stream of alpha. To cover extraordinary costs and amplify net returns, they increase portfolio leverage. If markets turn abruptly against them, they stop-out some teams and bring risk back to acceptable levels. The only real risk they face is that the markets don’t function normally, freeze up, close, gap, and leave them unable to cut losses.

Gaps VI: It’s far easier to see structural vulnerabilities than to know when they will manifest. When GOOG opens -12% or INTC opens -26%, it’s bad for longs but not systemic. A 25% gap in Brazil on a Lula upset is tragic for some but not worse than sad to many. But a big gap in the major world equity markets is increasingly systemic. The potential catalysts are many. An AI-powered/enabled attack is one obvious candidate. And we all know it is a matter of time. But the catalyst is beside the point. The vulnerability is that the market gap itself is the growing risk.

Anecdote: “I’m asking You God, to give me what You have left. Give me those things which others never ask of You.” I was looking at a photograph from Liv’s first half Ironman. On her wrist was written in black ink, give me what you have left. I asked what it meant. “I don’t ask You for rest, or tranquility. Not that of the spirit, the body, or the mind. I don’t ask You for wealth, or success, or even health.” It is the opening passage from The Paratrooper’s Prayer. And Liv drew it on her wrist, to give her strength each time she checked her watch. “All those things are asked of You so much Lord, that You can’t have any left to give. Give me instead Lord what You have left. Give me what others don’t want.” Prayer is an integral part of military culture, and increasingly of our family’s. “I want uncertainty and doubt. I want torment and battle.” André Zirnheld was a philosophy teacher in Tunis who wrote the prayer in 1938 as a private meditation, before he had ever worn a uniform. When France fell, he refused the armistice and joined the Free French. By 1942 he was a paratrooper with the SAS in the Western Desert. “And I ask that You give them to me now and forever Lord, so I can be sure to always have them, because I won’t always have the strength to ask again.” On July 27, 1942, Zirnheld was mortally wounded in a jeep raid on the German airfield at Sidi Haneish, in Egypt, the first French paratrooper officer killed in the war. The prayer was found in his notebook. His comrades adopted it. It became the prayer of French paratroopers and spread, as wisdom does. “But give me also the courage, the energy, and the spirit to face them. I ask You these things Lord, because I can’t ask them of myself.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: Anthropic filed for its IPO and reportedly targets a debut for the week of Nov 16 on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. Oil dips from six-month high as senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey meet for Tehran talks. Brazil stocks halted by circuit breaker, Ibovespa closes -13.9% on Lula win. S&P +0.7%. Tue: US Conf Board Cons Conf 91.7 (81.0e), durable goods orders 1.8% (1.9%e). US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the US midterm elections. The Trump administration plans to issue visas to defeated Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro. S&P +0.6%. Wed: US FOMC Rate Decision upper bound 4.00% as exp, lower bound 3.75% as exp. Fed holds rates, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting and preferring to raise rates by a quarter percentage point. Netanyahu’s bloc edges ahead of opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s in partial count of Israel’s tightly fought election, though neither has a majority. Bolsonaro arrives in Miami with family after fleeing Brazil. Trump says a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting will be set up soon. S&P +0.3%. Thu: US init jobless claims 194k (198k e). ECB main refi rate 2.65% as exp, deposit facility rate 2.50% as exp. BOJ holds rates at 1.25%, says underlying inflation has reached its 2% target for first time. ECB President Lagarde to step down Feb 7, citing desire for freedom to speak out beyond monetary policy. Binance says $6.3B impacted as crypto reels from hack. S&P -0.3%. Fri: China announced the level of its new key rate, the overnight reverse repo, at 1.25%, compared with 1.4% on the current seven-day benchmark. US approves $2.1B sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. OpenAI slashes latest funding round target by $10B. Stocks post worst day since June on disappointing tech earnings amid AI spending worries, with Nasdaq 100 sinking 3.5%. S&P -1.8%. Sat: Mara’s birthday!

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -0.6% and VIX -0.03 at +19.42. Nikkei +1.0%, Shanghai -2.5%, Euro Stoxx +1.7%, Bovespa -18.1%, MSCI World -0.3%, MSCI Emerging -0.7%, Bitcoin -5.9%, and Ethereum -6.9%. USD rose +9.2% vs Brazil, +0.7% vs South Africa, +0.7% vs Mexico, +0.5% vs Turkey, +0.4% vs Yen, +0.4% vs Indonesia, +0.4% vs Euro, +0.1% vs Australia, and flat vs India. USD fell -1.0% vs Sweden, -0.3% vs Russia, -0.2% vs China, -0.2% vs Chile, -0.2% vs Canada, and -0.1% vs Sterling. Gold -2.7%, Silver -8.7%, Oil (WTI) +0.8%, Oil (Brent) +1.5%, NatGas (US) -5.0%, NatGas (EU) +10.8%, Power (EU) +15.4%, Copper -0.4%, Iron Ore -1.1%, Corn -1.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU flat at 2.21%, US -1bp at 2.34%, JP -5bps at 2.01%, and UK -5bps at 3.39%). 2yr Notes -9bps at 4.59% and 10yr Notes -7bps at 4.93%.

Oct Mthly Close: S&P 500 -0.9% and VIX +3.08 at +19.42. Nikkei -5.2%, Shanghai -6.3%, Euro Stoxx +1.9%, Bovespa -9.9%, MSCI World -0.8%, MSCI Emerging -8.1%, Bitcoin -8.7%, and Ethereum -16.6%. USD rose +5.1% vs Brazil, +4.0% vs Mexico, +1.9% vs Chile, +1.9% vs Turkey, +1.7% vs South Africa, +1.5% vs Euro, +1.4% vs Indonesia, and +0.1% vs Yen. USD fell -3.5% vs Russia, -1.8% vs Sweden, -1.8% vs Canada, -1.2% vs Australia, -0.9% vs Sterling, -0.9% vs India, and -0.8% vs China. Gold -6.9%, Silver -18.6%, Oil (WTI) +17.8%, Oil (Brent) +19.3%, NatGas (US) -14.0%, NatGas (EU) +44.1%, Power (EU) +43.2%, Copper -2.1%, Iron Ore -5.0%, Corn -10.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU flat at 2.21%, US -3bps at 2.34%, JP -17bps at 2.01%, and UK -6bps at 3.39%). 2yr Notes -30bps at 4.59% and 10yr Notes -36bps at 4.93%.

YTD Close: S&P 500 +10.7% and VIX +4.47 at +19.42. Nikkei +25.7%, Shanghai -9.3%, Euro Stoxx +9.2%, Bovespa +4.2%, MSCI World +9.8%, MSCI Emerging +11.6%, Bitcoin -12.4%, and Ethereum -24.8%. USD rose +16.3% vs Turkey, +10.3% vs Chile, +8.6% vs Indonesia, +6.7% vs Sweden, +5.7% vs India, +5.3% vs Euro, +4.3% vs Mexico, +2.2% vs Russia, +1.8% vs Canada, +0.9% vs South Africa, +0.6% vs Sterling, and +0.5% vs Yen. USD fell -5.1% vs Australia, -4.8% vs China, and -0.7% vs Brazil. Gold -13.3%, Silver -32.4%, Oil (WTI) +82.9%, Oil (Brent) +88.3%, NatGas (US) -35.0%, NatGas (EU) +274.8%, Power (EU) +143.8%, Copper +9.7%, Iron Ore -16.8%, Corn -2.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +47bps at 2.21%, US +10bps at 2.34%, JP +23bps at 2.01%, and UK +45bps at 3.39%). 2yr Notes +112bps at 4.59% and 10yr Notes +76bps at 4.93%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Taiwan +50.4% priced in US dollars (+56.1% priced in Taiwan dollars), Korea +46.8% priced in US dollars (+36% priced in won), Colombia +42.4% in US dollars (+20.5% in pesos), Norway +41.2% in dollars (+28.9% in krone), Hungary +30.9% (+30.8%), Japan +24.8% (+25.7%), Poland +22.3% (+34.5%), Greece +17.4% (+23.5%), Singapore +16.5% (+15.7%), Austria +14.3% (+20.5%), Netherlands +13.3% (+19.3%), Russell 2000 +13.3%, Thailand +12.1% (+20.6%), Portugal +11.6% (+17.5%), S&P 500 +10.7%, Canada +10.4% (+12.3%), MSCI World +9.8% in dollars, NASDAQ +9.4%, Belgium +9.3% (+15%), Israel +8.9% (+7.4%), Australia +7.7% (+2.2%), UK +7.5% (+8%), Switzerland +7.1% (+11.6%), Sweden +6.1% (+13.5%), Brazil +5% (+4.2%), Italy +4.5% (+10.1%), Mexico +4% (+8.5%), Ireland +3.1% (+8.5%), Spain +2.4% (+7.8%), Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6% (+5.9%), Germany +0% (+5.4%), New Zealand -0.3% (+1.8%), Finland -0.5% (+4.9%), Vietnam -0.5% (-2.4%), Denmark -3.8% (+1.5%), Malaysia -3.8% (-3.8%), China -4.8% (-9.3%), UAE -5.3% (-5.3%), Saudi Arabia -5.5% (-5.4%), France -7.1% (-2.2%), Czech Republic -7.7% (-2.2%), South Africa -8.8% (-7.9%), HK -9.8% (-9.1%), Argentina -10.5% (-6.6%), Chile -11.2% (-2.3%), Philippines -13.3% (-6.2%), India -16.5% (-11.8%), Turkey -17.8% (-4.5%), Indonesia -46.1% (-41.5%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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